Thriving Kids Is a Phone Line and a Website.

On 1 October the federal government launched Thriving Kids, the program that's meant to replace the NDIS for thousands of young autistic children and children with developmental delay. I've got one question, and I'm genuinely asking: what actually is it?

I've gone looking, and so have doctors, autism experts and a lot of very frustrated parents. Nobody can give you a straight answer.

What Thriving Kids Actually Gave Families on Day One

On 1 October, families got online resources, a child development advice line and an autism helpline. That's it. A website and a phone number.

The Medicare check for three-year-olds starts on 1 November. Parenting programs, peer support, "facilitated playgroups" and targeted allied health, like speech and OT, will roll out "progressively" through 2027.

Think about the timing for a second. The only date the government has given for Thriving Kids being fully up and running is 1 January 2028. That's the same day new children aged 8 and under with autism or developmental delay and low to moderate support needs stop being able to join the NDIS. Everything before then is just "progressively". That's not much use to a four-year-old who needs help getting ready for Prep next year.

Autism Awareness Australia's CEO Nicole Rogerson summed up the launch better than I could: "It feels a bit 1980s, but sure."

Because no diagnosis is needed, she expects the service to be swamped by every child with a speech delay, ADHD or behaviour concern. "All I see in the future is wait times."

Even the Experts Don't Know What Thriving Kids Is

If you're a parent and you're confused, you're not the only one. In September, a psychologist with a PhD in autism diagnostics and intervention told the Medical Journal of Australia's news service: "Everybody only knows about 10% of the [Thriving Kids] model." Nobody knows how often sessions will run, who will deliver them, who signs them off, or which children will go into which tier.

Professor David Trembath, head of autism research at The Kids Research Institute Australia, says it is "impossible to draw a clean line" between low, moderate and high support needs. He's worried about a group of children who fall somewhere between Thriving Kids and the NDIS and miss out on both.

The government handpicked an advisory panel to design this thing. One of its members, the Royal Australian College of GPs' Chair of Child and Young Person's Health, said the state-based model is a departure from the panel's original intention and could leave vulnerable families at risk. He also suggested Thriving Kids "may have acted as one of the bargaining chips" in the hospital funding negotiations with the states.

So the government's own adviser reckons kids' early intervention might have been traded away in a hospital funding deal. I honestly don't know what to say to that.

Dr Jones also said he worries that "the bottom dollar at a federal level is driving things faster than it should necessarily happen." Paediatrician and independent MP Dr Monique Ryan pointed out that the NDIS was famously likened to a plane being built while it was flying. Her verdict: "We're repeating that mistake with Thriving Kids."

Taking Away the Thing the NDIS Was Built On

This is the bit that makes me so angry. Right now, young children who come into the NDIS routinely get early intervention plans, and those plans are mostly therapy: speech, OT, psychology, physio. Real, individual, evidence-based support, at the age when it makes the biggest difference.

Early intervention was never a side project of the NDIS. It was built in from day one. The Productivity Commission report Labor used to build the scheme created a specific early intervention pathway into the NDIS, and named autism as an example. Its logic was pure insurance: an insurer has "a strong incentive to undertake early intervention where it is cost effective". The law still says it today: early intervention is funded when it's likely to benefit a child by "reducing the person's future needs for supports". That's the whole point of an insurance scheme.

What Labor doesn't mention is that before the NDIS, disability support was run by the states. The Productivity Commission called those arrangements "underfunded, unfair, fragmented, and inefficient", and found that crisis spending "displaces funds for early intervention". Thriving Kids hands early intervention for these children back to state-run services. So they're not fixing the old system, they're rebuilding it.

And the evidence backs it. A 2021 Australian trial found a therapy started in infancy made a childhood autism diagnosis about two-thirds less likely. A 2023 follow-up study led by the University of South Australia and The Kids Research Institute Australia projected it would save about three dollars in NDIS costs for every dollar spent. A separate cost-benefit analysis of AEIOU, a Queensland autism early intervention program, found every dollar returned about $6.16 to the community.

So when a government stops giving young children therapy plans and offers a helpline instead, there are only two possibilities. Either the therapy is still needed and someone else is now paying for it, which is a cost shift onto states, schools and families. Or the therapy isn't happening at all, which means kids miss the window where it matters most. And those kids grow up into adults who need more support, not less.

Whichever it is, nobody's saving anything. They're just pushing the bill further down the road.

Queensland's Holdout: Risky, But I Get It

Every state and territory has signed up to deliver Thriving Kids except one. Queensland is the only holdout, and the federal government is furious about it.

Mark Butler, the senior minister responsible for the NDIS, said he's "a little frustrated" and that "we're losing time, frankly, for Queensland parents and children." NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister demanded Queensland explain its "inability so far to live up to the agreement".

I'll be honest, I'm torn on this one.

Queensland's Disability Minister Amanda Camm called Thriving Kids "a cost-shifting exercise from the federal government to the states and territories with little detail." Acting Minister Ros Bates said Butler "knows full well" the offer is "substandard". Queensland has asked the obvious questions. How will "low to moderate" support needs be defined? What happens to these kids when they turn nine? The Premier has said he wants assurances vulnerable people won't be "collateral damage".

Those are fair questions. They're the bare minimum you'd want answered before signing anything, and nobody seems to have answered them yet.

Yes, Queensland agreed in principle at National Cabinet and took a share of the hospital money. Butler loves pointing that out. But agreeing to build a house is not the same as agreeing to build it without plans. But it's a dangerous line to walk. Every month Queensland holds out is another month other states spend tendering, hiring and building services. If Queensland signs late, our families start at the back of the queue. And nobody has said what happens to Queensland kids in 2028 if there's still no deal.

Matilda Alexander, CEO of Queensland Advocacy for Inclusion, summed up how a lot of families here feel: "We know something's ending. We know we're going to be falling. We don't know what we're going to be landing on."

Right now, Queensland families aren't missing out on much. The helpline and website are national and available to Queensland families anyway, and everything else is still being built, in every state. But that won't stay true for long.

So I understand why Queensland is holding out, and I'd rather a government asked hard questions than signed a blank cheque with our children's therapy. But holding out only works if it ends in a better deal. Queensland needs to get its answers, sign, and tell families what the plan is in the meantime.

"Experiencing Autism"

And then there's the minister selling it.

In a video promoting Thriving Kids, Butler talked about children "experiencing autism". The comments section did not hold back, and fair enough.

You don't experience autism the way you experience a head cold or a rough week. It's lifelong. It's how someone's brain is wired. Disability advocate Samantha Connor nailed it in a post on launch day, signing off as "An adult who had decades of therapy and who is still experiencing autism."

This isn't the first time, either. When Butler announced Thriving Kids in 2025, he talked about children with "mild" autism. Advocates pointed out "Mild doesn't actually exist as a clinical term." We raised that, and the other questions families had, when Thriving Kids was first announced.

Was I surprised? Not really. But also, kind of yes, because this is the senior minister responsible for disability in this country. He's redesigning support for autistic children, and he doesn't know how to talk about autistic children. This government is so out of touch it's almost impressive.

And the language matters. If the person designing the system thinks autism is a phase a child is going through, it explains a lot about a program built on parenting courses and a phone line.

What Parents Are Actually Saying

If you want to know how it's actually landing, read the comments under the government's own Thriving Kids videos.

A Queensland parent whose son was knocked back from NDIS early intervention last month. The government website told her to see her GP, or go to a parenting website that links straight back to Thriving Kids. Her son needs OT to get ready for Prep, and at $260 a session, they can't afford it.

A kindergarten teacher pointing out she'll now be expected to act as an allied health professional for several children while also teaching a room full of others.

Parents saying they don't need "peer support". They need qualified therapists who can help their child at home.

These are the families Thriving Kids was supposedly built for, and they're telling the government it isn't working, in the comments of its own videos. I'd love to know if anyone in Canberra is reading them.

What Needs to Happen

• No child is turned away from NDIS early intervention until Thriving Kids therapy is actually up and running where they live, not just announced.

• Publish the whole model: who's eligible, what they get, how often, who delivers it, and what happens at age nine.

• Answer the questions Queensland is asking, so it can sign and Queensland families aren't left behind.

• Learn the language. If you're going to redesign support for autistic children, at least talk about them with respect.

If You're a Parent and You're Worried

If your child has an NDIS early intervention plan, keep using it, and talk to your therapists and support coordinator about what's coming. If your child has been knocked back, ask for the decision in writing, and ask about your review rights. And read our plain-English guide to the 1 October NDIS changes.

Our kids deserve real support at the time it matters most. A phone number and a promise for 2028 isn't it.

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